Which company has the best AI model by end of October?

Market Dates

• Market Period: From market publication until October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET (4:00 PM UTC).
• Market Close: October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET (4:00 PM UTC).
• Resolution Time: Upon checking the leaderboard at Market Close.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to the company that owns the model ranked first on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard when it is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

• Resolves to “Yes” for the company that owns the first-ranked model.
• Resolves to “No” for all other outcomes.
• If the company that owns the first-ranked model is not listed as an outcome, all outcomes will resolve to “No”.
• Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any unrounded values reflected in the leaderboard data. If a tie still remains, the company listed first in alphabetical order among this market's outcomes will be ranked ahead.
• Models marked “AutoEval” at the time of the check will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
• Changes to the leaderboard after the check time will not be considered.

Resolution Source

• This market resolves based on the “Rank” column of the Text Arena | Overall leaderboard at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control, with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for “Models”.
• If the leaderboard is unavailable at the check time, this market will remain open and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available again.

Cancellation Conditions

• The leaderboard becomes permanently unavailable.
• Any circumstance makes it impossible to determine the outcome definitively.

If the market is cancelled, participants can claim their stakes at the then-current market value of their shares, which could result in a profit or a loss depending on the price of those shares at cancellation.