Which movie will have the biggest opening weekend of 2026?

Market Dates:

• Market Period: From the publication date through December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
• Market Close: December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
• Resolution Time: Once final 3-day opening weekend figures are published for all relevant 2026 releases, expected shortly after January 1, 2027.

Resolution Criteria:

• Resolves to "Yes" for the film that grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie released in 2026, provided it is listed as an outcome in this market.
• Resolves to "No" for all other listed films.
• Resolution is based specifically on the 3-day opening weekend figure (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether a film has a 4- or 5-day opening weekend.
• The figures used are those reported by The Numbers under "Weekend Box Office Performance," regardless of whether "domestic" refers to the US only, or to the US and Canada combined.
• If another film's opening weekend surpasses that of a listed film after figures for both are finalized, the affected outcome may immediately resolve to "No".
• In the event of an exact tie, the film whose title comes first alphabetically will be declared the winner.

Resolution Details:

• This market will be resolved using the "Weekend Box Office Performance" figures published on each film's page at https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026, once those figures are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
• If no final data is available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Cancellation Conditions:

• The resolution source is compromised or unavailable for prolonged periods.
• Any circumstance makes it impossible to determine the outcome definitively.

If the market is cancelled, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.