Yes14.5%3.0% chance
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Market Dates:
- Market Period: From the publication date through December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Market Close: December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Resolution Deadline: January 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM UTC.
- Market Target: 1,000,000 BTC
Resolution Criteria:
- This market resolves to “Yes” if during the Market Period it is confirmed that Strategy‘s BTC holdings are above the Market Target.
- Resolves to “No” if not.
Resolution Details:
- This market resolves based on SEC 8-K filings or other official announcements published by Strategy (MSTR) announcing BTC holdings during the Observation Period.
- Any Strategy announcement or SEC filing published after the Resolution Deadline will not count toward this market’s resolution, even if it confirms Bitcoin purchases made during the Market Period that would bring their holdings above the Market Target.
- If contradictory information appears, SEC filings take precedence over other sources.
Cancellation Conditions:
- The resolution source is unavailable or compromised.
- Extraordinary circumstances prevent reliable determination of the outcome.
In the event of cancellation, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation. This could result in a profit or a loss, depending on the price of their outstanding shares.
Resolution SourceSEC

- Market publishedJun 23, 2026, 2:57 pm UTC
- Market closesJan 1, 2027, 4:59 am UTC
- ResolutionThe outcome will be validated by the team within 24 hours of its occurrence.
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Live probabilities from Myriad. Odds are not certainty.