Will the Clarity Act be signed into law in 2026?

This market tracks whether the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R. 3633), commonly known as the CLARITY Act, is passed by the U.S. Congress and signed into law.

Market Dates:

• Market Period: From the publication date until December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
• Market Close: December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
• Resolution Time: Upon official confirmation that the bill has been signed into law, or after Market Close if it has not been.

Resolution Criteria:

• Resolves to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R. 3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
• Resolves to "No" if the bill has not been passed by both chambers of Congress and signed into law by that time.

Resolution Details:

• The primary resolution source for this market is Congress.gov's legislation tracker for H.R. 3633.
• A consensus of other credible reporting from official U.S. government sources may also be used to resolve this market.
• Amendments, renumbering, or renaming of the bill that preserve its substantive digital asset market structure provisions will not affect resolution, provided the legislation is signed into law within the Market Period.

Cancellation Conditions:

• The U.S. Congress is not in session or unable to conduct legislative business for a prolonged period during the Market Period.
• Any circumstance makes it impossible to determine the outcome definitively using the specified criteria.

If the market is cancelled, participants can claim their stakes at the then-current market value of their shares, which could result in a profit or a loss depending on the price of those shares at cancellation.